航运市场周报 W38：洛杉矶港事故 · 79 班次空班 · 美对华钢架税率分化Freight Update W38: LA Port Incident · 79 Blank Sailings · US Steel Rack Rates Split

9 月 14 日，洛杉矶港 302 号泊位一艘集装箱船（达飞旗下 APL Dublin，约 1.07 万 TEU，服务亚洲—美西航线，8 月下旬曾挂靠上海洋山）装卸作业时 3 个 40 英尺集装箱落水。海岸警卫队随即划定约 400 码安全警戒区，航道一度受限。On September 14, three 40-ft containers fell from the CMA CGM-operated APL Dublin (approx. 10,700 TEU, Asia-USWC service, which called at Shanghai Yangshan in late August) during loading operations at the Port of Los Angeles Berth 302. The US Coast Guard set up a ~400-yard safety zone, restricting the channel.

处置进展顺利：3 个落水集装箱已全部打捞回收，箱内货物均申报为非危险品，未造成污染或人员伤亡，警戒区解除后航道已恢复正常通航。事故原因仍在调查。Recovery went smoothly: all three containers have been salvaged, cargo was declared non-hazardous with no pollution or injuries, and the channel has fully reopened after the safety zone was lifted. The cause remains under investigation.

背景值得注意：美西正值进口旺季，码头作业负荷高，近期还叠加船司大规模空班——小概率的码头事故落在高负荷窗口，就会放大船期不确定性。Context matters: the US West Coast is in peak import season with terminals running hot, on top of widespread blank sailings — a low-probability terminal incident landing in a high-load window amplifies schedule uncertainty.

德鲁里（Drewry）最新数据：9 月 14 日至 10 月 18 日（第 38-42 周），全球主要东西向航线 721 个计划航次中有 79 个空班，占 11%。其中跨太平洋东向占 52%，亚洲—北欧/地中海占 33%，跨大西洋占 15%。Drewry's latest data: between September 14 and October 18 (weeks 38-42), 79 of 721 scheduled sailings on the major east-west trades will be blanked — 11%. Transpacific eastbound accounts for 52%, Asia-North Europe/Mediterranean 33%, transatlantic 15%.

空班数量在一周内从 39 个跳升到 70 个，船司正在为国庆黄金周后的需求回落加速撤运力。马士基已取消亚欧线 AE15/AE12/AE1 和美线 TP8/TP12 部分航次，赫伯罗特、MSC 也有多线停航安排。Blank sailings jumped from 39 to 70 within a week as carriers accelerate capacity withdrawal ahead of the post-Golden-Week demand dip. Maersk has already blanked AE15/AE12/AE1 on Asia-Europe and sailings on TP8/TP12 to North America; Hapag-Lloyd and MSC have multiple cancellations across lanes.

美东时间 9 月 15 日，美国商务部在《联邦公报》公布对华钢架及其部件（steel racks and parts thereof）反倾销行政复审终裁并部分撤销，当日生效。结果分化明显：四家新应诉企业（江苏金珹、江苏诺瓦、南京金时代、河北诺瓦）税率从初裁的 73.60% 大幅下调至 10.34%；沿用历史单独税率的企业在 4.92%-18.06% 之间；未获单独税率的企业则适用高达 144.50% 的全国统一税率。On September 15 (US Eastern Time), the US Commerce Department published in the Federal Register the final results of the administrative review of anti-dumping duties on steel racks and parts thereof from China, effective the same day, with sharply divided outcomes: four new respondents (JISE, Nova, Jinshidai, Hebei Nova) saw rates cut from 73.60% preliminary to 10.34%; companies retaining historical separate rates sit between 4.92% and 18.06%; those without separate-rate status face the 144.50% China-wide rate.

同一类货架输美，税负差距接近 30 倍。这个案例的价值超过事件本身：积极应诉能把税率从 73.60% 谈到 10.34%，而"赌一把不申报"的代价是 144.50%。Same product, nearly 30x difference in duty. The lesson goes beyond this case: active participation in reviews cut one rate from 73.60% to 10.34%, while gambling on non-filing costs 144.50%.